So, I have been researching wave consistency back east using the recorded/average data posted on magicseaweed.com Is this website accurate? Give or take? It lists, in general order, the breaks in this order. Melbourne Beach, FL: 46% Hatteras: 42% over all ridable days per year Kill Devil Hills: 36% Virginia Beach: 28% OC New Jersey: 27% OC MD: 24% Carolina/Wrightsville Beach: 18% Folly Beach, SC 16% So, the shockers is Carolina/Wrightsville Beach. It says that there are less than 20% of ridable windswell days each year. Yet, it logs that Atlantic Beach gets about DOUBLE the overall swell that Carolina Beach does... I know that talking about consistency is usually just a crap shoot. It is everyone's opinion on the matter. How many days they "remember" each year. But this is 10 years of averaged data supposedly... The define a wave in 7 second period or more, breaking at least 3 feet in wave face. So, is carolina beach really this flat? Or is this data a little innaccurate?
18% of the year = about 66 days a year=5.4 days a month. I'd say thats a bit of an under call, but not too far off. Based on the fact that I'll probably surf at least waist high waves, at least one weekend a month, I'd say it's closer to 25-30%. But, (about your comparison to AB/CB), assuming this data is based on buoys, do they take into account swell angle? For instance, a buoy near ab (I'm assuming the buoy is out closer to cape lookout) might pick up more swell because it's so much further out than WB, but what if it's North or Easterly swell, AB won't break like what the buoy reads. You have any data for the west coast? I'd be interested in their consistency v. ours. Thanks for posting this, it's cool to see something tangible for what is mainly recorded in memory.
Magic Seaweed sucks for southeast coast predictions. Especially when it's gonna be mediocre. Rideable days have alot more to do with the surfer than the surf 50% of the time.
well, if the data is based on buoys than u r right. I just assumed that the averages were based on recorded swell data that actually arrive, but now that u mention it;it probably isjust based o buoys as far as california data, they have that too. im at work so I don't have the exact number, but san diego has ridable swell 70 plus percent of thetime. the main differencee other than consisttncy is that the east coast records almost all swell as local wind swell. cali is like 90percent groundswell. so, the 75 percent consitency is about right ince I surf every day all year and there are probably 20 to 25 days a year that get smallerthan waist high. even days here that technically don't record good ridable swell, I always find at least a 2 foot nugget at the right tide. so, while the data seems generally accurate, the carolina wrightsville areas 20 percent surfable wave figure seems really low. but then again, I've never been
I hate the west coast. Yeah, I think 20% is a bit of a low ball figure as well, probably closer to 30ish.
magicseaweed is such a big name that they can pretty much put anything on their site and get a fair amount of people to believe it. I just go there for the crazy pictures.
Percentages SE NC is really small compared to nearly everywhere. I am always surprised by how infrequent we get fun surf. I'd say 18% is high for rideable days (unless you like charging knee - thigh bombs). For Instance, here there is an assignment for wave heights based on every inch of the body (ankle, shin, knee, thigh, waist, stomach, chest, shoulder, head, etc.) San Diego's 70% seems accurate too, but don't be fooled, they may have the higher intervals, but it is generally very small there too, just not as shapeless and gutless as here. There they only use a portion of our body measurements too: flat, waist, chest, head, overhead, well overhead, double overhead. Once you go north of point conception, the swell frequency goes way up, but the conditions suffer more (resulting in less rideable surf). At the end of the day, a rideable wave is ultimately one that you want to surf, regardless of a percentage. There is more to a surfing experience than the quality of surf. I'd bet if you asked Kelly Slater if he'd rather surf epic Superbank or perfect Sebastion Inlet, you'd probably be surprised by the answer
they are good with local wind predictions, (thanks NOAA) swell seems calculated, instead of forecasted with local knowledge. But remember, their rating system goes for a full 24 hour day. the spectral breakdown and detailed forecast is better, but it's no swellinfo.
I am a 12 year old kid, so when the forecast says stomach high, thats for the average adult around 6 foot, so for me at 4'6 that is around head high so i charge every day.
MaigicSeaweed Well, this is just my two cents...It's good to look at a variety of sources when trying to look at the forecast for surf. I won't go into details, because the info is out there. However, what I have noticed about Magic Seaweed-at least in the WB/CB area, is that they usually under call it surf wise. So, when they are calling for actual surf, there is good chance they are accurate...especially if combined with similar forecasts from other sources.
I thought I'd bump this thread I have been wondering how to compare one location to another as well. When you read the travel reports on Surfline they suggest that OBX, the Northeast, and North and Central FL are in a similar league but the CB/WB north to Cape Lookout are close behind. Delmava and SC/Ga are generally weaker than these areas. That seems to make sense as their coastlines are further east. It seems like the beach needs to be either an armpit or sticking out to get good swell. I have read several other sources that list the cape fear area as good surf for the east coast and in the same league as all the rest except perhaps the OBX. The OBX and Sabastian are the only place that are consistently ranked among the best spots on the east coast though I have found New Smyrna to be just as consistent. What surprises me is that Magicseaweed lists Holden beach as having a much higher size and consistency as WB/CB. This flies in the face of everything else I have read and heard and the predictions I see on swell info. I always thought the beaches near the SC border were more like SC/GA i.e. weaker surf than NC. My experience is mostly in South Florida which I can assure you is much worse than all the other places (although the water is wonderfully warm and clear). I have caught some great surf in Central and Northern FL as well as WB. The washout is not bad but can be small. I found Tybee Island to be mushy, lame and muddy. I've caught great surf in WB and haven't been skunked yet. The OBX I found bigger than the other places but also rougher with intimidating shorebreaks. It would be great to hear from people who have lived throughout the east coast to get an idea of how they would rank the different areas. Being from SFla I've learned to have fun in the small messy waves, and the choppy disorganized crap as well. Does WB get at least small messy waves or are the bad days like Lake Carolina?
Ab/ei/wb/cb Well, I know I am chiming in a bit late and have enjoyed reading these posts. Things like this are always good discussion....But when it comes down to it......we surf when we get it....enjoy what we have when we have it. As far as EI/AB.....Don't they also face almost directly south as well....which I would imagine helps them pick up swell...combined with what someone else said about them sticking further out. The bottom countours of the ocean also have alot to do with ridable surf as well...at least power and shape. Ever notice how we will get some fun surf in WB that isn' what we exactly hoped for, yet if you were in CB on some of the same swells, or see the photos on surfcarolina's web page that were barreling left and right? The ocean gets deeper quicker after the sandbars...thus pushing harder and making it stand up better...Which I think is why CB holds long period swell alot better than WB.... Please correct me if I am wrong.......
CORRECT SIR.. bathymetry has alot to do with it. look at the water depth off puerto escondido, mexico, or playa hermosa, CR...
Even look at the water depths off of WB and then off of a SC beach. All the sediment dumping from the Cape Fear river and settling off the SC coast is the main reason why it's always significantly smaller there.
